Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces some pressure from home according to a new poll that was released by the Stop The AOC PAC. In the poll, AOC only has a 21% favorability rating and only 11% believe the Representative has their best interests in mind. This follows along the lines of previous polls in showing that the majority of her constituents do not support her.
Much of the complaints come from the Representatives lack of supporting Amazon coming to New York. Many constituents believe that Amazon was a good move, contrary to the beliefs of AOC. However, the poll results may show a much bigger picture than simply Amazon.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ district, NY 14, had 214,044 registered Democrat voters in 2016 compared to 33,912 Republicans. AOC won an overwhelmingly Democratic district with 78% of the vote. She does not need the support of Republicans to win her district, but she does need the faith of her Democratic base. With her Democrat base moving away, what’s next for AOC?
For starters, she is susceptible to any primary challenger in 2020. AOC only won her primary by just over 4,000 over Joseph Crowley. Crowley, was an establishment Democrat who significantly underestimated the grassroots campaign of AOC. It’s reminiscent of how establishment Republicans underestimated Tea Party candidates in past years.
Voter turnout will be higher as this is a Presidential election and AOC has lost the support of her base. In 2016, Crowley won support of over 147,000 voters. AOC only won with 110,000 in 2018. If AOC faces a strong democratic challenger in the 2020 election, she may struggle to get through the primary. Will a moderate Democrat challenge AOC in the primary? Maybe Joseph Crowley will come back to challenge her with her low approval numbers?
AOC also faces concerns regarding redistricting after the 2020 Census. There’s a general consensus that if a seat is lost after the census, it would be her seat in the NY 14 district. If she is moved to another district, she would have to face an incumbent Democrat, which would be some of the same issues as described above.
So what’s the end game for AOC? Many have suggested the thought of AOC being a VP candidate, however she is not old enough. She has long been an outspoken supporter of Bernie Sanders and is slowly becoming the face of the activist side of the Democratic Party. She may lose her seat in a primary challenge, or through redistricting, but AOC is not going anywhere anytime soon.
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