A new poll shows that former Joe Biden’s lead is almost gone. A new Economist/YouGov poll shows that Biden now has 23% to Elizabeth Warren’s 20%. Bernie Sanders follows close behind at 16%. The rest of the field polls below 10%. As you search down through the details of the polling data, some more interesting information appears.
As a first candidate, only 21% were interested in Joe Biden while 20% were interested in Elizabeth Warren. Joe Biden received more support from women than men. Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate to register over 10% with 16% support. After these candidates, only Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg registered over 5%.
On further into the data, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren both appealed to Democratic candidates while Bernie Sanders had greater appeal to Independents. Of 2016 Clinton voters, 25% supported Joe Biden while 23% supported Warren.
Another interesting area of the poll relating to Democrats was if those polled would be disappointed if a specific candidate won the nomination. Bill De Blasio, Marianne Williamson and Joe Biden led in this polling group. One interesting surprise, Elizabeth Warren actually had the best responses in this area of all candidates.
The poll surveyed 1500 people, with approximately 378 identifying as Republican, 537 Democrats and 585 Independents. Of those surveyed, 28% of the Independents said if the election were held today between Trump and a general Democrat challenger, they would not vote. I think this should be something that is concerning to both Democrats and Republicans.
For Democrats, the reasons are because 20% of Independents who identified with Democrats were not happy with their choices in Democratic candidates. This could lead to poor independent turnout, which the Democrats will need in an effort to beat President Trump. Polls consistently show that Independents are the key group in an effort to win the election as neither party has a majority without them. Democrats will need to find a way to motivate these to get behind a candidate.
For Republicans, 25% of Independents that identified with Republicans were not happy with President Trump. While Trump has support from his committed supporters, this shows that he has alienated many of these Independents he will need to win in 2020. For Trump to win reelection, he will need independents. In the poll, Independents favored Trump over Democrats 28 to 26%, but 28% of them said they would not vote at all.
The poll covered other topics as sell, with 61% of those surveyed favoring stricter gun laws, while a majority (41%) did not feel new gun laws would have prevented the recent shootings. Over those surveyed, 59% favored banning semi-automatic firearms while 63% opposed banning of handguns. Handguns are the most commonly used in gun violence crimes in the US. Background checks were supported by 78% of respondents.
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