If you recall recently, President Trump attacked polling data from Fox News. He claimed the misleading data was inaccurate. New data out today suggests he may have been right.
According to a new Emerson poll, President Trump leads Warren and Biden, while trailing Bernie Sanders by 2 points. Looking through online news, many outlets were not reporting the lead, simply stating it’s a dead heat. Sure, it is much closer than the 10 points Trump won by in 2016. There’s more to this story, however.
What’s interesting is that this is a state which has only went for a Republican candidate twice since the Reagan administration. The second term of George W Bush and for Donald Trump. That’s quite a stretch of reliability for the Democrats that Trump has turned red.
Recent polls from North Carolina show a similar trend. Democrats had successfully turned North Carolina blue in 2008 and 2012, making it a near toss up in 2016. Trump won the state by around 180,000 votes in 2016, or 49 to 46%. Recent polling data from North Carolina shows Trump leading all Democratic challengers, save Biden by 4 points and Sanders by 1 point.
Another important detail that is shown in the Emerson poll is the important items to voters. The economy and healthcare were the top two issues for voters going into 2020. Trump has excelled on the economy. Trump has indicated that a healthcare plan from Republicans is coming. If the plan garners support, it will continue to push Trump into his 2020 victory.
The fact is, Democrats are not excited about their candidates. We’ll be the first to admit that there are a lot of factors at play in the 2020 election. Yet, it will be very difficult for Democrats to defeat President Trump in 2020. In the end, Democrats will need a lot to go their way to have a chance to beat this President.
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