Charlotte, NC — The mainstream media have been trumpeting a lot of the polls being for Joe Biden.
There are several problems in some of those polls and how there are the other polls, like the Democracy Institute poll, that find President Donald Trump ahead because they’re measuring likely voters not registered voters and they aren’t oversampling Democrats. Most are also not measuring things like the shy Trump voter or that the youth vote is again unlikely to come out in greater numbers.
But what’s missing in a lot of the discourse is that the measures apart from MSM national polls by which you judge whether a president will be reelected are all for Trump.
First there’s no indication of a youth voter surge, especially since the college and university campuses are shut down currently, that’s bad for the Democrats who poll much higher with the young than other age groups.
Trump has a 51% approval rating from Zogby.
Trump Approval at 51%
(poll released on Oct 9; 833 likely voters; conducted 9/25-27) pic.twitter.com/cvTLFBlvH3
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Gallup has found whenever the incumbent has over 50%, he’s re-elected. In fact, Joe Biden was quick to dismiss voters who say they are better off now than they were in 2016.
Moreover, Gallup also discovered that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than they were four years ago under the Obama-Biden administration.
The septuagenarian just recently forgot Mitt Romney’s name and called him “The Mormon.”
Gallup also found that 56% Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. A reporter asked Joe Biden about that, he got snippy and said that if people thought that they didn’t have to vote for him and that their memories were somehow wrong.
Trump seized on the Gallup poll and tweeted that the poll was “incredible.” He wrote, “56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!”
The most important note? How high that number is for Trump and that all the prior president in 2012, 2004, 1992, 1984 who even had lower numbers were reelected.
% of Americans who say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago
Sept 2020: 56 percent
Dec 2012: 45 percent
Oct 2004: 47 percent
Oct 1992: 38 percent
— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) October 8, 2020
“[N]o incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”
It gets better.
“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,”
This tallies with the Helmut Norpoth prediction model that cites the importance of the primary numbers and also predicts a Trump win. People came out in droves for Trump in the primary when they didn’t even have to.
Want more? Okay. Every candidate who has led in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won. Trump not only leads in voter enthusiasm, he leads by a lot, a 19 point enthusiasm gap.
Journalist David Chapman recently provided his election predictions based solely on history and historical trends. He notes the biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19. Moreover, he added, “There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present).
Many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers. This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy. There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend. Since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. Two of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.
In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.
President Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote. We’ve never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. President Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1 million.
Ultimately, every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm has won the election. Pew research gives Trump a 20 point advantage in strength of support. All polls show voters expect President Trump to re-election. The expectation question is more accurate than the voter intention question that has Biden leading.
Expected voters vs. Intended Voters.
Most recently, since 2004, the candidate that led in Google searches has won the election. President Trump leads Joe Biden in Google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.
Here’s another interesting measure Chapman observes, that no one who has ever served more than 15 years in the Senate has won. Joe was there for almost 40 years.
So the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year. Joe Biden is fighting against history. No one who has served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Just as a reminder, Joe Biden has served as a United States Senator for 36 years.
The 14-year rule indicates that no one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Biden needed 36 years to become Vice President.
We soon shall see, but a whole lot of history would have to go south for all these measures to fail. That’s looking pretty good for Trump!
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