Charlotte, NC — Early voting data is showing positive signs for President Trump and some cause for concern for the Biden campaign. Beginning with the basic premise that there is expected to be more early mail-in voting with Democrats and more in-person Election Day voting with Republicans voting for Trump.
As such, people should expect the numbers of the early voting to weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. Now some states are tracking along those lines. However, in some key and battleground states, this isn’t proving true.
Texas is a state in which Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking might flip, Republicans are up by 11, 51%-40%. In Michigan, a critical battleground state, it’s 41% to 39%, Republicans.
In Ohio, the numbers are looking even better, with 46%-41 of the returned ballots favoring the GOP. In Wisconsin, it’s 40%-38% in the requested ballots, Republicans.
Arizona is tied at 36%.
Early voting results from Michigan and Wisconsin. Not sure if I’m missing something but this doesn’t make me optimistic that Biden takes back both these states. pic.twitter.com/JcWRiTpvur
— Johnny Farmer (@JohnnyFarmer69) October 17, 2020
Democrats have been scared to death by the media outlets they watch; therefore, Trump voters are expected to come out in full force on Election Day. So with early numbers looking good for the president and knowing the turn out for Trump on November 3rd will be strong, these are great signs!
Republicans are up or basically tied in the early voting in the aforementioned states. A lot of Republicans have had a lot of concerns over mail-in ballots, and rightfully so, as many ballots indicating votes for Trump have appeared in oddest of places.
It remains to be seen how many will turn out on Election Day especially as some Democrats have expressed some concern over the mail-in process they touted so passionately in the beginning.
There are a lot of metrics that lean toward a Trump win despite double-digit polling deficits nationally, but show a tightening race in key swing states as enthusiasm levels heavily favor Trump.
Given the history of most of those polls, one can’t put much trust in them.
Voter registration numbers have also shown more positive signs for the Republicans in places like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona.
In the blue-leaning state of Pennsylvania that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, shows the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.
Additionally, JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.
Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.
FLORIDA: Democrats’ longtime voter registration edge is disappearing, down to just 134,000 over Republicans ahead of Election Day—closest margin in recent history.
In 2012, Democrats had a 535,987 voter edge & Obama won.
In 2016, Democrats had a 327,428 voter edge & Trump won.
— Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) October 15, 2020
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