Charlotte, NC — In early 2021, lawmakers will redistribute seats in the House of Representatives. The move comes as a result of the census and will not only have an effect on the House but also the Electoral College.
The Census Bureau released population estimates on Tuesday, and it appears that some changes are on the way for many states around the country.
The Wall Street Journal reports that 10 states are poised to lose congressional seats based on the newest estimates. Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia look to all lose one seat. The interesting part is where these seats will go.
Texas and Florida appear to be the big winners in the congressional seat distribution. Texas looks to gain three seats, while Florida is expected to gain two. Other states, like Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon, are all expected to gain one seat.
In a hypothetical analysis, seven states that Joe Biden won in the 2020 election will all lose one Electoral College vote while only 3 that Trump won will lose votes. As those are redistributed, Trump states would pick up 7 votes while Biden states would gain 3.
While it does not overturn the 2020 election for President, the shift could cause some more significant changes in Congress.
Depending on how those districts are drawn, Republicans could be facing a potential to gain control in the House solely from this reassignment. Republicans currently trail Democrats by 11 seats with 2 seats left open.
If these new seats were to go to Republicans in those Trump-voting states, the already record-setting slim margin of control gets even smaller for Democrats.
Another key point that the WSJ shares is that New York could potentially lose a second congressional seat depending on the exact numbers of the census. If New York were to lose a seat, Alabama, a reliably red state, could retain the representative that is at risk. That could be another huge win for Republicans.
Census data is scheduled to be released near the end of January. Once this data is released, parties on both sides of the aisle will start establishing their plans to attack the new political landscape.
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