One of the best pollsters around is Trafalgar. Yes, they are a “conservative” pollster, but I promise you, Trafalgar will tell it to you straight, good or bad. And that’s why his polling company has always been the most consistent and has hit the closest to the target since 2016 when all corporate pollsters went bonkers, and traded in their professionalism for Stage 5 TDS.
Dems are going all-in on abortion. They think this is their winning issue. Well, once again, they’re wrong. It’s not a winning issue for them. Not when we’re dealing with skyrocketing inflation and a recession. Not to mention a wide-open border, horrific crime sweeping liberals cities all across the nation, thanks to Dems and they’re “Defund the Police” and “Bail Reform.” Right now, Criminals rule the roost, and everyone knows it.
Look, the truth is that polls are a marketing and media tool. You can get them to say whatever you want them to say based on the questions you ask, how you ask them, and who you sample and how. Polls are a lot like “scientific research.” Whoever is funding the research, will always get the result they want.
The media likes to pretend races are “tight” because it gives them something to talk and write about. Dems want to get the word out that they’ve launched a comeback to not only engage their base but depress the other side, too.
The fine folks over at American Thinker did a great piece on how “scared” Dems are, and in that piece, they shared what infamous pollster Nate Cohn had to say about all those corporate polls we’ve been seeing that are showing Dems making all this new ground. Here’s what J. Robert Smith said in his piece: It’s less than two months to Election Day — whatever that means anymore. Early voting is gearing up. Reliable polls – Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports – show Republicans gaining. Even the Real Clear Politics average of major polls – that includes corporate media sponsored or cited surveys – show Democrats with a trifling 1.1% edge in the generic congressional ballot. That’s bad news for Democrats.
Corporate media polls are giving Nate Cohn, the New York Times poll-parser, the willies. Cohn is well aware of polls’ flaws. He just sounded a blue alert for Democrats. Via MEDIAite, September 12:
Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
That’s a polite way of saying that big media polls are skewed. Cohn cites a failure to make “significant methodological changes,” which, translated, means, in part, a lot of polls oversample Democrats. Even with slanted polls, Democrats are struggling. Republicans are positioned to rack up a whole heap of wins come November. Democrat consultants are well aware of that bleak prospect.
Western Journal reported that the latest evidence of that is a recent poll result from Trafalgar Group showing that even a 30-year incumbent in a state as blue as Washington — which went for former Vice President Joe Biden by nearly 20 points over former President Donald Trump less than two years ago — isn’t safe this year.
The poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday among 1,091 likely general election voters, showed five-term Democratic Sen. Patty Murray with 48.7 percent of the vote and relatively unknown first-time Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley with 46.5 percent.
With a margin of error of 2.9 percent, that puts the two candidates about even.
As conservative Seattle talk radio host Jason Rantz put it, “Smiley underperformed in the primary because of Democrat anger after overturning Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion access to the states. Murray, up against a first-time candidate, should be leading by much more.”
Rantz argued that recent negative ads hitting Smiley indicate just how nervous the Democrats are at the prospect of losing this seat.
“[I]f the knives are out this early, Smiley is doing something right. And this race is winnable [for Republicans],” he said.
The poll also asked respondents their party affiliation — 44.2 percent said Democrat, 33.4 percent said Republican and 22.4 percent said another party or none at all.
Assuming all those Democrats said they’d vote for Murray and all the Republicans said they’d vote for Smiley — which is probably close, at least within a point or two — that would mean only one out of five of those other party or independent voters is going Democratic.
The Red Wave is real. We just have to make sure we come out in absolute roves to combat any “funny business” the left has planned and dominate the polls like never before.
We do that, and we begin to take back this country.
This post originally appeared on WayneDupree.com.