Charlotte, NC – Donald Trump was the unlikely Presidential winner in 2016. Overcoming the MSM, the political establishment, and full force of the DC swamp, Trump defeated the anointed Hillary Clinton and rewrote a seemingly predestined history. The silent majority proved in 2016 that polls cannot be trusted, that democracy is still alive, and that elections are never guaranteed. Four years later, can we expect a repeat victory for President Trump in 2020? Here are four things to watch out for:
1. Voter Turnout.
Election results ultimately come down to voter turnout and nothing else. None of the other peripheral factors widely discussed in an election season carry the same weight as voter turnout. If you want to win an election, then you must inspire people to get out and vote.
As if turnout wasn’t already hard enough to create, then add some 2020 craziness to the equation. A deadly pandemic, race riots, and ballooning violent crime rates will no doubt dissuade people from waiting in a crowded line to cast their ballot. The question for the GOP will be: is the Trump Doctrine enough, has Trump accomplished enough, to inspire folks to go out and vote?
2. Trump’s record.
Unlike in 2016, when Trump campaigned as a political outsider, he now has a political record. Unfortunately, his record is not a purely conservative one. How do Trump’s actions in his first term measure up to what we understand as conservatism?
In terms of economics, the Federal deficit in 2016, before Trump’s first term was was approximately 620 billion dollars. After his first term, the deficit now stands at 1.1 trillion in 2020, nearly doubled from 4 years ago. The entire federal workforce increased under Trump from Sept. 2016 to Sept. 2018, and the most significant sector to grow was the Department of Defense. To date, in the first 3 phases of the government’s coronavirus response, the administration has signed off in nearly 9 trillion dollars of additional spending, including bailouts for restaurants, airlines, and hospitals. Additionally, Mexico still hasn’t paid for the border wall.
To his credit, Trump has rolled back unnecessary regulations in the business and finance sectors. He has advocated for religious liberty. He cleared the path for some of the greatest economic numbers in history. He also moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. So, he has done well on some traditionally conservative points. His shortcomings are not bad enough to flip voters to the DNC, but his less-than-conservative record might affect voter turnout.
3. The Other Side.
Just as in 2016, the left is unified against Trump. Anti-Trumpism is the only thing that unites the left, but their sentiment is nonetheless substantial. The occupied protests in Seattle and Portland have not come out of nowhere. Anti-Trumpism in the ranks of academia and corporate media have been building since 2015, and we are now seeing the real-world effects of this idiocy.
Additionally frustrating for the President is the far-left’s control over the entire DNC. Trump does not only have to campaign against Joe Biden, but also against the most popular and radical nutcases in the party. Biden is an empty shell and a mouthpiece. He has no positions and no opinions of his own. He will fall in line with the far-left faction of his party and campaign for those who rigged the nomination for him. For Trump, it would have been far easier to defeat Biden on his own merits, which are few, than to defeat the entire Socialist Revolution and its financial backing.
4. The October Surprise.
It’s 2020, so go to the darkest reaches of your imagination, and the inevitable October Surprise is bound to be far worse. Killer rabbits and holy hand-grenades are very, very possible. In all seriousness, there are two developing stories to keep an eye on that may lend themselves to an October surprise.
First, watch for developments in the Ghislaine Maxwell/Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking ring trial. Conspiracy theories have linked everyone from Bill Clinton to Chrissy Teigen to Wayfair.Com to the ring. If Maxwell does not commit suicide, and she turns on her accomplices, then anyone – politicians or donors alike – could be implicated.
Second, watch for developments around China and its investments in Israel and Iran. China is becoming a major headache for Trump and the State Department. The President has already waged a trade war with China and nearly went to nuclear war with Iran. Escalating tensions have the potential to become violent between now and November.
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