By Allan J. Feifer
Political projections are notoriously fickle and biased. What first appears to be definitive often proves to be incorrect or flawed. This election cycle has some of the most novel or odd conditions we’ve ever seen in a presidential election.
But as unpredictable as many people think this election will be, I don’t see it this way. Let’s review a few wild cards first:
- Biden’s handling of the Israeli massacre will swing many votes, especially the Jewish vote. With Iran pulling all the strings, I look for the administration to miscalculate rather than to get it right. Biden has a demonstrably terrible foreign-policy record. Sometimes, avoiding conflict only gets a lot more people killed.
- Independent voters within five swing states will likely decide this election. This group determined that the 2022 Red Wave was not to be, largely due to choices made by Independent voters under 30.Peeling them off might not be quite as difficult as it appears. Many of the promises Democrats in office made have been unfulfilled. Young people and others who lean left politically can’t make ends meet and consequently can’t be relied upon to show up and vote. According to LendingClub, 61% of adults live paycheck to paycheck, up from 59% in 2022. This is a significant opportunity for Republicans to develop messaging that will make Independent voters take a deep breath before voting Democrat again.
- President Biden has multiple challenges, all laid with landmines. Nothing much will help him, either – his son is a solid negative, Kamala is nothing but bad news, and Biden’s age, frailty and developing dementia make many see him as inept. And all bets are off if the Republicans can connect him with provable corruption.Overlay this with an economy sucking money out of the pocket of Average Joe faster than he can make it, forcing him to rely on credit cards to make ends meet. Biden doesn’t acknowledge that inflation is killing the young and middle class. How will that work on an electorate being financially shellacked by Bidenomics, which is tanking our economy and impoverishing people? Even America’s Happiness Index is the lowest since records have been kept! That Gallup poll was taken last year. Would the numbers be even lower today? How many unhappy Americans will flock to a Biden/Harris ticket again?
- There is a widespread belief that, if elected again, Biden will not be able to finish his second term. Biden’s insistence on keeping Kamala Harris on as VP is fascinating. Arguably, a vote for Biden is a vote to elect Harris as the first black woman president. Why aren’t more Dems howling with delight at the possibility? Some are. But with her personal approvals in the low 30s, Harris could never win a presidential election alone. People are becoming cognizant that next year’s election is more about Harris than Biden.
- President Trump has his own issues. How much time and money will it take him to defend himself in court against a barrage of charges threatening to put him away for life? Trump’s followers differ from Biden’s in important ways – it seems likely that more of Trump’s supporters will turn out and that they will make heavier individual campaign donations.Trump is the only proven Republican candidate who has demonstrated that he will fight against the swamp. Will Trump jump back into quicksand through unforced errors as he has in the past? However, millions of Americans will likely see the next election as a referendum on the Deep State’s unequal treatment of him.
- Biden’s underwhelming performance has ameliorated some of the rhetoric and hatred of Trump. Biden will also be unable to stay in the basement as he did last time, giving ample opportunity to demonstrate his lack of competence and acumen. Biden’s actual performance in public is almost always poor. Party loyalty only goes so far, and a significant majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run again.
- Trump himself. America loves an underdog and still values fair play. Americans are starting to accept that Trump isn’t getting treated equally under the law. A new term has entered the vernacular – “Lawfare.”Most Americans don’t believe that the “insurrection” on Jan. 6, 2021, was the worst event in American history, as Democrats and the media claim. Trump’s fighting back, while generally standing alone, makes him singularly attractive to Americans who admire a man who believes in himself and is seen as fighting for us against impossible odds.
Few elections can ever really be said to be “in the bag.” Many people I know believe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. However, these same people didn’t think Biden would even serve a year or two in office either. Electing a president is not like handicapping a horse race. Too many factors, variables, moving pieces, missteps, world events and sometimes even providence get in the way.
What happens if Biden drops out? What are the Democrats’ options? Harris is the presumptive presidential nominee for 2028 if a Biden/Harris ticket prevails in 2024. Harris has poor support from her party, except perhaps at the fringes.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is positioning himself as a stand-in for both 2024 and 2028, much to the chagrin of the Biden administration. But he’s not the only individual keeping his options open; he’s just the most visible.
Then, there’s the fascinating question of moderate Sen. Joe Manchin as one of two potential spoiler in the upcoming election. I’ve talked to Dems who think a third-party candidate like Manchin would be the Democrat’s Death Star, benefiting Donald Trump significantly over Biden. The same can be said of Independent candidate RFK Jr.’s bid, with 14% of the electorate saying they’d vote for him.
Former Sen. Joe Lieberman‘s “No Labels” initiative publicly states it would not run a candidate that might become a spoiler in the election. But my guess is that with Manchin in a difficult-to-win reelection situation, and with the investment made by “No Labels” so far, it’s 60-40 in favor of a third-party presidential run next year.
We’ll have to wait and see! I find this election cycle definitely interesting, even though I fear another Biden or, God forbid, Harris presidency.
God Bless America.
Allan J. Feifer is a patriot, author, businessman, thinker and strategist. Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com
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