On Thursday, CNN published a story that took a proposed electoral college map from The University of Virginia and ran with it. The article is their attempt to help support the Democratic Party’s suggestion that Sanders cannot win. I certainly agree, Sanders will not defeat Trump in a general election. But it highlights the use of the media to help push the Democrats agenda.
According to the Center for Politics at UVA, a Bernie Sanders nomination would create a 260 to 248 electoral college split at this current time. They allowed 30 of the electoral college votes to be placed in the toss-up category. As a refresher, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 306 to 232. So the suggestion is that a communist that calls himself a socialist will take more votes that Hillary Clinton. I beg to differ.
On the proposed map, they are giving Sanders Michigan where Hillary Clinton lost that state to Trump. They label toss-ups as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Recent polls, according to RealClear Politics, have Sanders and Trump statistically tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s hard to believe these polls, however. Are we really to believe that the people of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would really prefer this “socialism” label over capitalism? Do you really believe that these blue collar workers, who have seen wage increases and new jobs move into their areas would really vote to give it all away?
Trump continues to see his approval numbers above that of President Obama during his reelection period. According to Rasmussen, his approval among likely voters on Thursday was 52%. More polls show that 59% of Americans do not have a favorable view of socialism. Again, Rasmussen reports that Trump leads nationally 50-43 in a head to head matchup with Sanders. I tend to believe that is more accurate than most.
Most of the polls are Democratic heavy weights. For example, the most recent CNN/YouGov poll that is shown as Trump vs Sanders head to head, shows Sanders ahead by 3%. The poll says that 10,000 registered voters were contacted, of whom 6,498 were Democrats. I understand that they weight these polls to try to bring this back to a normal reflection of the voters, but this shows how it is not an accurate reflection and would easily be wrong.
Plus these are the same polls that told us Clinton was going to win by a landslide. Do you remember that? Essentially every poll is showing a similar story, as you can see in the graphic below.
Sanders Vs Trump Swing State Averages:
(RCP Polling Averages)
MI: 48.8% / 43.5%
OH: 49% / 46.5%
MN: 49% / 40%
WI: 45.5% / 45.5%
PA: 47.5% / 44.5% pic.twitter.com/W3VzBhyAAg
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) February 27, 2020
Here’s RealClear Politics page that shows the polls before the 2016 election. These all had Clinton ahead by +3 just before the election, but she still lost. The Democrats realize that they have the power of the media behind them and they have the ability to shape the message. They want you to believe that Sanders can win and that Sanders will carry these states. I’m sorry, I’m not buying it.
I believe that Trump could be vulnerable, not because of policy but because of person. Some people simply do not like the way he does things. But I do not believe for one second that these hard working Americans in these states will go for Sanders and his socialism. Actually, his communism is more like it. While all the free programs sound great, these Americans just have too much to lose.
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