Los Angeles, CA – Earlier this week, Mike Garcia (R-CA) won a special election in California’s 25th congressional district to replace Katie Hill. Hill won the election in 2018 as part of the Democrats takeover of the House from an incumbent Republican.
So what can we learn from this situation? I think there are a few key points to look at. It does show some promise for Republicans, concerns for Democrats and a lot about the feelings of America.
Hill won her election in 2018 by a 54-45 margin. The previous Republican Representative was a 2 term representative and had been winning by the same margin in the past. Some of the most recent voter registration data shows that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans In the district by a 38-32 margin. According to the data, there is a large number of independent voters in the district.
Based on this information, we can easily see the transition in 2018 to the Democrats, but it shows that people are not happy with what the Democrats have done. The voters were willing to go away from a Democrat and support a Republican again. Specifically, a Republican that had aligned with President Trump.
It’s not just any voters, but those coveted independent voters. Those voters who will decide the Presidential election across the country. While the main stream media pushes a narrative of Biden winning easily, it doesn’t seem to be so easy here.
If Independents do not have any faith in Democrats, it will spell doom for Joe Biden. In California, the Governor has taken a hard nose stance on the coronavirus, leading to many in the state struggling with unemployment and economic issues. Across the country, people are struggling and unhappy with the draconian stay orders.
This could be some insight into how Americans feel about the situation currently and looking into November. Americans clearly trust Republicans to turn the economy around more than the Democrats.
Democrats didn’t help their case with their pork filled coronavirus recovery plan that they proposed. It doesn’t serve the needs of the people, but rather special interest groups. Americans everywhere see this. They see how Democrats are not concerned, but simply want power.
These are some key takeaways from both parties going into November. For Republicans, it certainly gives some momentum. To win both special elections held this week, as well as turning this blue seat red, it’s a big win.
If the temperature of independents across the country is the same, it looks very promising for November. I’ve argued against the “polls” for some time. While Biden may win a national poll due to the higher numbers of Democratic voters, he will not win the election on a popularity poll.
President Trump is very popular across a lot of states. Independents in the battleground states are suffering, just like these independents in California. Unless Democrats change their minds, Trump will cruise to 4 more years.