Washington, DC – Over the past week, media outlets across the country have painted a grim picture for Republicans. The reports are that Republicans are concerned Trump will cost them the Senate. Several stories shared how former officials say Trump is betraying his oath and leading us to a dictatorship.
The reports come as a great disturbance has been brewing among Americans. It’s a story that looks familiar. These are similar things that happened back in the Obama administration with the riots across the country. It’s these types of events that led to the election of Donald Trump.
So while the media wants to paint a grim picture, it’s time to take a serious look. The events are wholly divided across lines. Everyone agrees that George Floyd should not have died, but Floyd was far from a perfect man and a hero. It’s also a similar story from the situation in the Obama administration as well.
So if we take a solid look into the election, what can we see? According to Real Clear Politics, it looks like it’s shaping up to be 2016 all over again. Nationally, Biden leads Trump just like Clinton did in 2016. Sure, his margin may be higher, but we elect based on the Electoral College, so the national popular poll doesn’t matter.
According to the data, all of the states that are considered toss-up states are within the margin of error. Trump shows up 4 in Pennsylvania in one. Biden shows up 3 in Florida in another. One shows Biden up 2 in Wisconsin, and another shows it as a tie. The story that this election is a lost cause for Republicans is merely fake news.
Two other races that have been used as potential determinates of the national elections are not great either. One is the Senate race in Arizona. Recent polls show McSalley trailing Kelly by 13 points. The race was pretty evenly split at the beginning of the year, but Kelly pulled ahead in the data earlier this year and has not looked back. Kelly is a popular figure in the state, as a former astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords.
The other race is that of Senate in North Carolina. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is up for reelection, and seems to be in a close battle with Cal Cunningham, his Democratic challenger. This is also not a good measure for the national electorate because Tillis has struggled to gain any popularity in North Carolina. Several Republicans were vying for his seat in the primary, until he finally aligned himself with Trump late last year.
So while I would agree that McSalley looks to be in trouble for her specific seat, across the country, most elections seem to be falling in line with what we saw in 2016. Depending on what happens with the economic recovery from coronavirus and in the next few months, Republicans may be in a tight battle, but one that can be won. It will be interesting to watch as the left is starting to draw their battle lines.
The left has set a dividing line in place over police departments across the country, allowing groups like Black Lives Matter to drive the agenda. They are calling for complete disarmament of police and disbanding them. It’s a war on those who protect us.
They say if we simply give everything for free to all minorities, that the world will improve and crime will go away. Giving away free things is something that will not sit well with those Trump voters from 2016. As Biden is forced to start making public remarks, his love of socialist plans may be the move that sinks him.
Behind the scenes, and out of mainstream media reports, Biden has continued to embrace the socialist plans of his former challengers. He has added socialist supporters as key players in his campaign and as advisors of policy positions.
Socialism is not extremely popular across the country. Specifically, it’s unpopular with independents and rural Americans across the country. Those are the very voters Biden, and the Democrats need to defeat Trump. They are pushing them away with their moves.
Polls will swing to the left while Trump is in the spotlight for these events. Once Biden is forced to face off with Trump and defend his positions, that will be the real test of which way the winds of the electorate go. Biden is gaffe-prone, and one or two wrong statements will kill his campaign.
The media wants you to think that the election is already lost for Republicans. The data does not support that, and the election is still months away. Do not think for a minute that this election is over.
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